and social productivity, and it is essential to grasp the future trends of social needs and technology
advancement to promote the strategic technology policy. Japan embarked on technology foresight in
the early 1970s and has since been conducting a regular Delphi survey approximately every 5 years.
To explore a new intelligent methodology for integrating technological seeds and social needs by
articulating future demands, this paper reviews the following two cases: the Delphi-scenario writing
(DSW) method, which is applied in 1977 for the home/office small facsimile, and the method of
general assessment applied in 1972 for informationalization, which focused on the rapidly advancing
information society, with a matrix scoring and policy-simulation method. Those new approaches were

proved to be a powerful methodology to integrate the technology forecasting and assessment for
comprehensive understanding of the emerging technologies and their social impacts in the form of

یک مطلب دیگر :

integrated technology road mapping, which supports the integrated strategic planning methodology for
enhancing the future innovation system.
D 2002 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Delphi-scenario writing method; General assessment method; Demand articulation; Informationalization
0040-1625/$ – see front matter D 2002 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00397-9
* Corresponding author. Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (JAIST), Tatsunokuchi,
Ishikawa 923-1292, Japan.
E-mail addresses: kameoka@jaist.ac.jp (A. Kameoka), yokoo@nistep.go.jp (Y. Yokoo),
kuwahara@nistep.go.jp (T. Kuwahara).
URLs: http://www.jaist.ac.jp, http://www.nistep.go.jp.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change
71 (2004) 579–598
1. Introduction